Chlöe Swarbrick edges National rival in a closely watched Auckland Central poll

Chlöe Swarbrick has taken a narrow lead over National candidate Candace Kinser in a new Auckland Central electorate poll, offering a snapshot of a race that could draw attention as election day approaches. The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, released today, puts Swarbrick on 36% among respondents asked which local candidate they were most likely to vote for. Kinser follows on 32%, while Labour’s Naisi Chen is on 16%. The poll was conducted from October 14 to 21, with 400 participants and a reported margin of error of 4.9 percentage points. The figures suggest a close contest rather than a settled outcome. The source notes that electorate polling can be difficult and that earlier Auckland Central polls have not always matched the result on election night. The numbers therefore offer a campaign-time indication, not a prediction of a guaranteed win. Respondents were also asked whether they could name the candidates. Sixty-one per cent identified Swarbrick, compared with 33% for Kinser and 28% for Chen. On party vote in the electorate, the Greens registered 28%, Labour 26% and National 25%, with the remaining parties each in single digits. Swarbrick, the incumbent MP, received a positive assessment from nearly half of those surveyed: 48% said she had done a good job locally over the past year. Another 34% rated her performance average, while 12% called it poor; the rest were unsure. The poll comes during the final fortnight of the campaign, with cost of living described as a leading concern for voters in a separate nationwide account. At a National rally in Christchurch, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon urged supporters to party-vote National and warned against strategic voting. He repeatedly raised the possibility of Swarbrick becoming Finance Minister in a Labour-led government, a prospect Labour leader Chris Hipkins has ruled out. For Swarbrick, the local figures show both a lead and a contest still within reach of her nearest rival, particularly given the poll’s margin of error and the uncertainty surrounding electorate surveys.