Donald Trump Could Use a Fresh Iran Strike to Claim Victory and Step Away, Analyst Says

A new round of U.S. strikes on Iran might give Donald Trump a way to declare progress and begin winding down the conflict, according to defense analyst Seth Jones. Speaking about the possibility of renewed attacks, Jones argued that bombing alone is unlikely to permanently derail Iran’s nuclear program. “I don’t think anything is going to permanently set back their program,” Jones said, while suggesting another campaign could still give Trump a political off-ramp. The president could say the strikes had once again pushed Iran’s nuclear efforts back, Jones indicated, and then use that claim to justify stepping away from a prolonged war. The report says the United States has urged Persian Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a possible short, intense campaign after the November 3 midterm elections. The warning was reportedly passed through diplomatic and military channels, citing people familiar with the discussions. Trump was said to be considering attacks on Iranian infrastructure and nuclear facilities, though officials had not described a final decision. Military preparations described in the report include replenishing ammunition in the region and readying bomber aircraft and fighter jets. An additional Patriot missile defense system was reportedly being sent to Israel, while some U.S. troops were moved away from American bases in the Middle East in anticipation of possible retaliation. Other accounts cited a carrier strike group and a Marine expeditionary unit expected to join about 20 U.S. warships in the region in November. The timing and scale of any renewed attack remained uncertain. The report said the operation could resemble the opening strikes of the war on February 28, while Israel had prepared possible targets and plans of its own. Jones was not the only analyst quoted questioning what a fresh campaign could achieve. Behnam Ben Taleblu, who leads the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Trump should make a public case if the administration intends to target a developing threat, including Iran’s rebuilding missile stockpiles. His comments underscore the gap between the military preparations described and the public explanation analysts say would be needed.