Harry Enten Warns Trump’s Party Could Face a Midterm ‘Blowout’

CNN data analyst Harry Enten says the numbers point to a difficult midterm election for Donald Trump’s Republicans, with Democrats building a substantial lead in the national congressional ballot. On his show, The Enten Scale, Enten said Democrats’ advantage had grown to 10 points, up from four points a year earlier. Based on the polling picture, Enten projected Democrats could win 238 seats in the House on Nov. 3. He put the chance of a Democratic “blowout”—defined as one party winning at least 230 seats—at 71 percent. Democrats account for nearly all of that possibility, with a 69 percent chance, while Republicans have a 2 percent chance, according to the figures he presented. Enten argued that the party’s difficulties were tied to Trump’s low approval ratings. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 16–19 found that 31 percent of Americans approved of the president’s performance, while 66 percent disapproved. Reuters reported that the approval figure was Trump’s lowest ever. Enten called the result “atrocious” and said the survey put Democrats 12 points ahead on the congressional ballot. He said a 10-point average lead would be large enough to overcome redistricting advantages, and described the polling as a reason for Republicans to worry. Enten also noted that mid-October ballot polls had underestimated Republican performance in 15 of 16 elections since 1994, a historical pattern that could complicate the forecast. Even allowing for that possibility, he said, the polling error would need to be unusually large to change the overall picture. Enten cited a 4.5-point error as the largest in the 21st century and said that, if Democrats underperformed by that much, they would still win the national House vote by 5.3 points—enough, in his assessment, to overcome redistricting. He added that the Senate contest presented a tougher challenge, though the available report did not provide further details about that race.