Olatunde Amolegbe Forecasts 57% Stock-Market Returns as Dangote Refinery Listing Looms

Olatunde Amolegbe says Nigeria’s stock market could deliver a full-year return of about 57.65 per cent, while analysts see the market’s value potentially rising above N200 trillion by December 2026. The former president of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers shared his outlook as investors weigh the prospect of a major refinery listing and the market’s recent sharp climb. Amolegbe, who leads Arthur Stevens Asset Management, described himself as cautiously optimistic. He pointed to corporate earnings, stronger investor confidence, growing participation by local investors and ongoing economic reforms as factors that could continue to support shares. He also said companies with sustainable earnings and appealing valuations may still offer opportunities. The market has already recorded a substantial advance. The report says investors’ wealth rose by N62.76 trillion year to date, a 60.47 per cent increase, while market capitalisation climbed from N99.376 trillion to N162.134 trillion. The NGX All-Share Index also gained around 60.5 per cent, moving from 155,613.03 points to 249,710.59. Amolegbe cautioned, however, that a rally of this scale could prompt some investors to take profits. He also expects possible volatility as portfolios are adjusted, while inflation, high interest rates, exchange-rate uncertainty and global economic developments remain risks. Other analysts cited in the report said a planned listing of Dangote Petroleum Refinery shares on the Nigerian Exchange could provide another boost, alongside improved liquidity and corporate results. They also discussed the approaching 2027 general election, saying concern about possible policy changes could weigh on confidence, though they expect the effect to be less severe if there are no major adverse policy developments. The article attributes the market’s recent strength to several factors, including relative stability in the foreign-exchange market, easing inflation, improved financial-system liquidity and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to reduce its Monetary Policy Rate to 23 per cent. Amolegbe’s forecast remains a projection, with the market still exposed to changes in economic conditions and investor sentiment.