Shannon Deery says Labor’s leadership switch has failed to stop a Victorian election slide

Political columnist Shannon Deery argues that changing leaders has done little to improve Labor’s prospects ahead of Victoria’s election, and says the party could be facing a historic defeat if current polling is reflected at the ballot box. In his assessment, Labor’s decision to replace Jacinta Allan with Ben Carroll was meant to halt a decline in support. But Deery says the switch has not delivered the expected lift. He notes that polling before Allan’s departure put Labor between 21 and 28 per cent, while the latest figures cited in the column place the party at 18 per cent. Deery acknowledges that it is impossible to know whether Labor’s support would have fallen even further had Allan remained leader. He also points to a change in approval ratings: Allan’s lowest figure was reportedly minus 46, while Carroll’s current rating is minus 30, down 16 points since September. The figures, he suggests, offer little evidence that the leadership change has strengthened the party’s position. The column also highlights gains for the Greens, whose primary vote has reportedly reached 17 per cent. On a two-party-preferred measure cited by Deery, the Coalition leads Labor 56 to 44. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson is described as the only party leader with a positive net approval rating. Even so, Deery cautions against treating the numbers as a guaranteed election outcome, noting that politics can shift quickly. His central argument is that the leadership change has so far failed to bolster Labor’s hopes, leaving the party with a difficult campaign ahead. The article’s accompanying image shows Ben Carroll and Jess Wilson.